Model Comparison and Parameter Estimation for Gompertz Distributions Under Constant Stress Accelerated Lifetime Tests

The accelerated lifetime test is a widely used and effective approach in reliability analysis because of its shorter testing duration. In this study, product lifetimes are assumed to follow the Gompertz distribution. This article primarily focuses on performance comparisons between the linear model and the inverse power-law model, both of which are utilized to characterize the relationship between the shape parameter and stress levels. To test model robustness, we also generate data from the Sine-Modified Power Gompertz distribution, a more flexible alternative. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations using four estimation methods: the maximum likelihood method, the least squares method, the maximum product of spacing method, and the Cramér-von Mises method, for small, medium, and large sample sizes. The comparison of mean squared error serves as a critical indicator for evaluating the performance of different methods and models. Additionally, the shape parameter and reliability function are obtained based on the estimation results. Finally, a real dataset is analyzed to demonstrate the most suitable accelerated life model, and the Akaike Information Criterion is used to further assess model fit. Furthermore, we employ leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) to prove this model’s generalizability.