Predicting the Occurrence of Falls Among Portuguese Community-Dwelling Adults Aged 50 or Older Using the Timed up and Go Test

Falls are a major cause of morbidity and mortality among older adults. While the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test has recently been identified as the best predictor of falls, it should not be used in isolation to identify individuals at risk. This study aims to develop a predictive model by combining the TUG test with fall risk factors that involve intrinsic and extrinsic elements to predict future falls in Portuguese community-dwelling adults aged 50–60, 60–70, and 70 years or older. A total of 403 participants aged 50 or older completed a questionnaire on demographic information and fall risk factors, underwent the TUG test, and were monitored for 12 months to record falls. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the TUG test alone effectively distinguished fallers from non-fallers exclusively among adults aged 50–60, with a cut-off time of 6.9 s. Multivariate logistic regression defined three predictive models based on age groups, with ROC curve results as follows: 50–60 (AUC = 0.825, cut-off = 18.1), 60–70 (AUC = 0.754, cut-off = 17.8), and 70 or older (AUC = 0.708, cut-off = 24.8). These findings are clinically significant, demonstrating that the TUG test combined with a few self-reported questions can efficiently identify individuals at risk of falling in just a few minutes, without requiring specialized equipment.