A Novel Power Prediction Model Based on the Clustering Modification Method for a Heavy-Duty Gas Turbine

Data-driven models utilizing machine learning algorithms provide an effective approach for predicting power in heavy-duty gas turbines, extracting valuable insights from large-scale operational datasets. However, global unified models often struggle to meet the accuracy requirements of all data when dealing with complex and variable operating conditions, leading to limited prediction accuracy for local conditions. To address this problem, a clustering modification method is introduced to develop a novel power prediction model for heavy-duty gas turbines. In this study, the Support Vector Regression (SVR) prediction model is combined with a k-means clustering modification model, enabling the model to adapt to different operational conditions. Operational data from an E-class gas turbine are carefully preprocessed, including filtering, noise reduction, and steady-state selection, to enhance data quality. Then, the k-means algorithm is employed to classify operational conditions, with tailored modification models trained for each category. These modification models refine predictions to accommodate variations in specific operating states. Experimental results demonstrate that the composite model achieves a 32.66% reduction in MAPE and an increase in R2 to 0.9982 compared to single-model approaches. The analysis further highlights that training the model with 70% of the annual data achieves optimal prediction accuracy and stability. Additionally, the model significantly reduces high-error occurrences, with 75% of predictions having errors below 0.2946%. This method improves the precision and adaptability of power prediction for gas turbines, providing a practical framework that enhances the reliability of real-world applications and supports the advancement of data-driven energy systems.