Analysis and Application of Dual-Control Single-Exponential Water Inrush Prediction Mechanism for Excavation Roadways Based on Peridynamics

Roof water inrush accidents in coal mine driving roadways occur frequently in China, accounting for a high proportion of major coal mine water hazard accidents and causing serious losses. Aiming at the lack of research on the mechanism of roof water inrush in driving roadways and the difficulty of predicting water inrush accidents, this paper constructs a local damage criterion for coal–rock mass and a seepage–fracture coupling model based on peridynamics (PD) bond theory. It identifies three zones of water-conducting channels in roadway surrounding rock, the water fracture zone, the driving fracture zone, and the water-resisting zone, revealing that the damage degree of the water-resisting zone dominates the transformation mechanism between delayed and instantaneous water inrush. A discriminant function for the effectiveness of water-conducting channels is established, and a single-index prediction and evaluation system based on damage critical values is proposed. A “geometry damage” dual-control water inrush prediction model within the PD framework is constructed, along with a non-local action mechanism model and quantitative prediction method for water inrush. Case studies verify the threshold for delayed water inrush and criteria for instantaneous water inrush. The research results provide theoretical tools for roadway water exploration design and water hazard prevention and control.