Optimizing Power Consumption in Aquaculture Cooling Systems: A Bayesian Optimization and XGBoost Approach Under Limited Data

Driven by increased integration of renewable energy sources, the widespread decarbonization of power systems has led to energy price fluctuations that require greater adaptability and flexibility from grid users in order to maximize profits. Industrial loads equipped with flexible resources can optimize energy consumption rather than merely reacting to immediate events, thereby capitalizing on volatile energy prices. However, the absence of sufficient measured data in industrial processes limits the ability to fully harness this flexibility. To address this challenge, we presents a black-box optimization model for optimizing the energy consumption of cooling systems in the aquaculture industry using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian Optimization (BO). XGBoost is employed to establish a nonlinear relationship between cooling system power consumption and available measured data. Based on this model, Bayesian Optimization with the Lower Confidence Bound (LCB) acquisition function is used to determine the optimal discharge temperature of water into breeding pools, minimizing day-ahead electricity costs. The proposed approach is validated using real-world data from a case study at the Port of Hirtshals, Denmark based on measurements from 2023. Our findings illustrate that leveraging the inherent flexibility of industrial processes can yield financial benefits while providing valuable signals for grid operators to adjust consumption behaviors through appropriate price mechanisms. Furthermore, machine learning techniques prove effective in optimizing energy consumption for industries with limited measured data, delivering accurate and practical estimations.