Modeling the Future of Liquefied Natural Gas Transportation: Regression Analysis of Historical Data and Fleet Development Scenarios

The analysis conducted in this paper observes long-term trends in the LNG transportation market with a tendency to predict its future development by applying market patterns and variables that follow changes in the historical period. The basis of this paper is a previous study that provided an analysis of this sector until the end of 2024 using linear regression. A comparison of the predictions with the results obtained showed that these predictions were mostly accurate, with a small deviation in LNG trade volume (10.9%), LNG fleet size (12.7%), and the number of countries exporting LNG (5%). The largest deviation was in the propulsion systems for new ships, where a new system (ME-GA) was introduced but later abandoned. Based on previous studies and current data, a forecast was made until the end of 2029, which shows that the LNG market will continue its growth and the LNG trade volume will exceed 450 MT by the end of this decade. As a result, the LNG fleet will grow to over 900 vessels. The data on the propulsion types of the LNG fleet show that the trend shown in previous studies will continue, namely that this LNG fleet will be powered by XDF and MEGI plants.