EUR Prediction for Shale Gas Wells Based on the ROA-CatBoost-AM Model

Shale gas is a critical energy resource, and estimating its ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) is a key indicator for evaluating the development potential and effectiveness of gas wells. To address the challenges in accurately predicting shale gas EUR, this study analyzed production data from 200 wells in the CN block. Sixteen potential factors influencing EUR were considered, and key geological, engineering, and production factors were identified using Spearman correlation analysis and mutual information methods to exclude highly linearly correlated variables. An attention mechanism was introduced to weight input features prior to model training, enhancing the interpretability of feature contributions. The hyperparameters of the model were optimized using the Rabbit Optimization Algorithm (ROA), and 10-fold cross-validation was employed to improve the stability and reliability of model evaluation, mitigating overfitting and bias. The performance of four machine learning models was compared, and the optimal model was selected. The results indicated that the ROA-CatBoost-AM model exhibited superior performance in both fitting accuracy and prediction effectiveness. This model was subsequently applied for EUR prediction and for identifying the primary factors controlling productivity, providing effective guidance for development practices. The dominant factors and production forecasts determined by the model offer valuable references for optimizing block development strategies.