Quantification Method of Driving Risks for Networked Autonomous Vehicles Based on Molecular Potential Fields

Connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) face constraints from multiple traffic elements, such as the vehicle, road, and environmental factors. Accurately quantifying the vehicle’s operational status and driving risk level in complex traffic scenarios is crucial for enhancing the efficiency and safety of connected autonomous driving. To continuously and dynamically quantify the driving risks faced by CAVs in the road environment—arising from the front, rear, and lateral directions—this study focused s on the self-driving particle characteristics that enable CAVs to perceive their surrounding environment and make driving decisions. The vehicle-to-vehicle interaction behavior was analogized to the inter-molecular interaction relationship, and a molecular Morse potential model was applied, coupled with the vehicle dynamics theory. This approach considers the safety margin and the specificity of driving styles. A multi-layer decoder–encoder long short-term memory (LSTM) network was employed to predict vehicle trajectories and establish a risk quantification model for vehicle-to-vehicle interaction behavior. Using SUMO software (win64-1.11.0), three typical driving behavior scenarios—car-following, lane-changing, and yielding—were modeled. A comparative analysis was conducted between the risk field quantification method and existing risk quantification indicators such as post-encroachment time (PET), deceleration rate to avoid crash (DRAC), modified time to collision (MTTC), and safety potential fields (SPFs). The evaluation results demonstrate that the risk field quantification method has the advantage of continuously quantifying risk, addressing the limitations of traditional risk indicators, which may yield discontinuous results when conflict points disappear. Furthermore, when the half-life parameter is reasonably set, the method exhibits more stable evaluation performance. This research provides a theoretical basis for the dynamic equilibrium control of driving risks in connected autonomous vehicle fleets within mixed-traffic environments, offering insights and references for collision avoidance design.