A Study on a Scenario-Based Security Incident Prediction System for Cybersecurity

In the 4th industrial era, the proliferation of interconnected smart devices and advancements in AI, particularly big data and machine learning, have integrated various industrial domains into cyberspace. This convergence brings novel security threats, making it essential to prevent known incidents and anticipate potential breaches. This study develops a scenario-based evaluation system to predict and evaluate possible security accidents using the MITRE ATT&CK framework. It analyzes various security incidents, leveraging attack strategies and techniques to create detailed security scenarios and profiling services. Key contributions include integrating security logs, quantifying incident likelihood, and establishing proactive threat management measures. The study also proposes automated security audits and legacy system integration to enhance security posture. Experimental results show the system’s efficacy in detecting and preventing threats, providing actionable insights and a structured approach to threat analysis and response. This research lays the foundation for advanced security prediction systems, ensuring robust defense mechanisms against emerging cyber threats.