Can Mathematical Models of Body Heat Exchanges Accurately Predict Thermal Stress in Premature Neonates?

Mathematical models of body heat exchanges can be used to define the thermal limits needed to protect premature neonates nursed in incubators against thermal stress–stress that can have potentially devastating impairments on neurological development and body growth. Predictive models can help caregivers to keep a neonate’s body temperature within the normal range and to solve problems that arise during intensive care, such as the risk of hyperthermia during phototherapy, the risk of hypothermia during transport from one clinical centre to another, and the use of a plastic bag to reduce skin water loss and body dehydration. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of models used to predict the risk of thermal stress, with a focus on uncertainties in the algorithms governing heat transfers between the neonate’s skin and the complicated thermal environment encountered in incubators. We describe attempts to reduce the large number of empirical assumptions and uncertainties in this field, and suggest ways of more accurately modelling optimal thermal conditions for neonates nursed in closed incubators.