Bayesian Survival Analysis Model for Girth Weld Failure Prediction
Source abstract
Abstract
The formation and development of a dataset for pipeline systems have affected the management and decision-making of pipeline operators. The dataset, combined with a proposed theoretical analysis method, can provide significant improvement for the safe and economic operation of pipelines. On the basis of the pipeline data and its essential impact on pipeline risk assessment, the authors propose for the first time the Staged Bayesian failure model for girth welds of a pipeline, using the “tree-type” accident theory and Bayesian survival analysis method. This model of girth welds is consistent with the distribution of Kaplan–Meier functions and can predict the influence of different factors on the survival probability of girth welds. These new research results can lay the technical foundation for the failure analysis of pipeline girth welds.
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Research context
OpenAlex topics: Structural Integrity and Reliability Analysis · Material Properties and Failure Mechanisms · Geotechnical Engineering and Underground Structures
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
Pipeline Integrity Management Center, PetroChina Pipeline Company, Langfang 065000, China
College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China
The Erosion/Corrosion Research Center, The University of Tulsa, Tulsa, OK 74104, USA
School of Materials Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Funding
China National Key Research and Development Program of China
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