journal article·2025-10-23Open access

Approach for Microseismic Monitoring Data-Driven Rockburst Short-Term Prediction Using Deep Feature Extraction and Interpretable Coupling Neural Networks

Shirui Wang, Lianku Xie, Yimeng Song, Peng Liu, Yuan Gao, Guang Zhang, Yang Yuan, Shukai Jin, Zhongyu Wang

Applied Sciences· Volume 15· Issue 21

Abstract

Rockburst disasters have become increasingly prevalent as distinct forms of subsurface geotechnical engineering advanced to the deep earth. Confronted with such a threatening subsurface geopressure disaster that poses a risk to personnel and equipment safety, the microseismic monitoring technology has been employed to track signals generated from rock fracture and collapse in the field. To guide the prevention and control of the hazard, the investigation conducted an effective microseismic data mining method. Through deep feature engineering and interpretable intelligence, a practical and available short-term prediction approach for the rockburst intensity class was developed. On the basis of rockburst case database collected from various underground geotechnical engineering, the neural network-based feature extraction method was conducted in the process of model training. The optimized model was obtained by combining the K-fold cross-validation approach with the structural parameter search methodology. The evaluation among the considered artificial intelligence models on the testing dataset was conducted and compared. Through analyses, the interpretable coupling intelligent model combining convolutional and recurrent neural networks for rockburst prediction were demonstrated with the most robust performance by evaluation metrics. Among them, the proposed adaptive feature extraction method leads the benchmark method by 6% for both accuracy and precision; meanwhile, the proposed metric generalization loss rate (GLR) for accuracy and precision in the validation–testing process reached 1.5% and 0.2%. Furthermore, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach was employed to verify the model interpretability by deciphering the model prediction from the perspective of the fined impact of input features. Therefore, the investigation demonstrates that the proposed method can predict rockburst intensity with robust generalization and feature extraction capabilities, which possess substantial engineering significance and academic worth.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline

Research context

OpenAlex topics: Seismology and Earthquake Studies · Seismic Imaging and Inversion Techniques · Rock Mechanics and Modeling

SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.

Affiliations

Information Research Institute of Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100029, China

Beijing Key Laboratory for Precise Mining of Intergrown Energy and Resources, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China

School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China

Funding

S&T Innovation and Development Project of Information Institution of Ministry of Emergency Management · Key Science and Technology Project of Ministry of Emergency Management · National Natural Science Foundation of China · Beijing postdoctoral research funding project

References (67)

Show source-provided references
1. Monitoring, Warning, and Control of Rockburst in Deep Metal Mines10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.013 ↗
2. Preliminary Engineering Application of Microseismic Monitoring Technique to Rockburst Prediction in Tunneling of Jinping II Project10.3724/SP.J.1235.2010.00193 ↗
3. Rockburst in Underground Excavations: A Review of Mechanism, Classification, and Prediction Methods10.1016/j.undsp.2021.11.008 ↗
4. Rock Mechanics Applied to the Study of Rockbursts
5. A Review of Rockburst: Experiments, Theories, and Simulations10.1016/j.jrmge.2022.07.014 ↗
6. Principles and Methods of Rock Support for Rockburst Control10.1016/j.jrmge.2020.11.001 ↗
7. Long-Term Prediction Model of Rockburst in Underground Openings Using Heuristic Algorithms and Support Vector Machines10.1016/j.ssci.2011.08.065 ↗
8. Sansyzbekov, G., and Adoko, A.C. (2021, January 18–25). Quantifying Underground Excavation Damage Induced by Mine Seismicity. Proceedings of the 55th U.S. Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium, Virtual.
9. Dynamic Stability Analysis of Rockmass: A Review10.1155/2018/4270187 ↗
10. Rock Burst Assessment and Prediction by Dynamic and Static Stress Analysis Based on Micro-Seismic Monitoring10.1016/j.ijrmms.2017.01.005 ↗
11. End-to-End Time-Dependent Probabilistic Assessment of Landslide Hazards Using Hybrid Deep Learning Simulator10.1016/j.compgeo.2024.106920 ↗
12. Damage Quantification of Intact Rocks Using Acoustic Emission Energies Recorded during Uniaxial Compression Test and Discrete Element Modeling10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.02.012 ↗
13. Rockburst Mechanism and Prediction Based on Microseismic Monitoring10.1016/j.ijrmms.2018.07.016 ↗
14. Microseismicity-Based Short-Term Rockburst Prediction Using Non-Linear Support Vector Machine10.1007/s11600-022-00817-4 ↗
15. Short-Term Rockburst Risk Prediction Using Ensemble Learning Methods10.1007/s11069-020-04255-7 ↗
16. Application of Machine Learning Technique to Predict the Energy Performance of Energy Tunnels10.1016/j.compgeo.2023.106010 ↗
17. Toward Precise Long-Term Rockburst Forecasting: A Fusion of SVM and Cutting-Edge Meta-Heuristic Algorithms10.1007/s11053-024-10371-z ↗
18. Pu, Y. (2019). Machine Learning Approaches for Long-Term Rock Burst Prediction. [Ph.D. Thesis, University of Alberta].
19. Comprehensive Early Warning Method of Microseismic, Acoustic Emission, and Electromagnetic Radiation Signals of Rock Burst Based on Deep Learning10.1016/j.ijrmms.2023.105519 ↗
20. Objective Determination of Initiation Stress and Damage Stress in Rock Failure Using Acoustic Emission and Digital Image Correlation10.1016/j.aej.2025.02.077 ↗
21. Experiment on Deformation and Failure Characteristics of Sandstone at Different Unloading Rates10.1016/j.aej.2023.05.061 ↗
22. Qiu, J., Yin, X., Pan, Y., Wang, X., and Zhang, M. (2022). Prediction of Uniaxial Compressive Strength in Rocks Based on Extreme Learning Machine Improved with Metaheuristic Algorithm. Mathematics, 10.10.3390/math10193490 ↗
23. Mechanical Deformation, Acoustic Emission Characteristics, and Microcrack Development in Porous Sandstone During the Brittle–Ductile Transition10.1007/s00603-023-03533-7 ↗
24. Identification of Mining Induced Ground Fissures Using UAV and Infrared Thermal Imager: Temperature Variation and Fissure Evolution10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2021.08.005 ↗
25. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Methodology for Rock Burst Forecasting Using Microseismic Monitoring10.1016/j.tust.2018.06.029 ↗
26. Characteristics of Rockburst and Early Warning of Microseismic Monitoring at Qinling Water Tunnel10.1080/19475705.2022.2073830 ↗
27. A Microseismic Method for Dynamic Warning of Rockburst Development Processes in Tunnels10.1007/s00603-014-0689-3 ↗
28. Rockburst Time Warning Method with Blasting Cycle as the Unit Based on Microseismic Information Time Series: A Case Study10.1007/s10064-023-03141-3 ↗
29. The B-Value Evolution of Mining-Induced Seismicity and Mainshock Occurrences at Hard-Rock Mines10.1016/j.ijrmms.2018.02.003 ↗
30. Multifractal of Electromagnetic Waveform and Spectrum about Coal Rock Samples Subjected to Uniaxial Compression10.1142/S0218348X20500619 ↗
31. Predicting Short-Term Rockburst Using RF–CRITIC and Improved Cloud Model10.1007/s11053-023-10275-4 ↗
32. Deformation Field and Acoustic Emission Characteristics of Weakly Cemented Rock under Brazilian Splitting Test10.1007/s11053-020-09809-x ↗
33. Microseismic and Precursor Analysis of High-Stress Hazards in Tunnels: A Case Comparison of Rockburst and Fall of Ground10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105435 ↗
34. Predicting Rockburst with Database Using Particle Swarm Optimization and Extreme Learning Machine10.1016/j.tust.2020.103287 ↗
35. Microseismicity Evolution Related to Two Extremely Intense Rockbursts in a Water Diversion Tunnel10.1016/j.ijrmms.2023.105359 ↗
36. Machine Learning for Data-Driven Discovery in Solid Earth Geoscience10.1126/science.aau0323 ↗
37. Deep Learning of Aftershock Patterns Following Large Earthquakes10.1038/s41586-018-0438-y ↗
38. Classification of Rockburst in Underground Projects: Comparison of Ten Supervised Learning Methods10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000553 ↗
39. A Comprehensive Review of Intelligent Machine Learning Based Predicting Methods in Long-Term and Short-Term Rock Burst Prediction10.1016/j.tust.2023.105434 ↗
40. Development of a Semi-Quantitative Framework to Assess Rockburst Risk Using Risk Matrix and Logistic Model Tree10.1007/s10706-022-02122-9 ↗
41. Feasibility of Stochastic Gradient Boosting Approach for Predicting Rockburst Damage in Burst-Prone Mines10.1016/S1003-6326(16)64312-1 ↗
42. Kadkhodaei, M.H., and Ghasemi, E. (2025). Interpretable Real-Time Monitoring of Short-Term Rockbursts in Underground Spaces Based on Microseismic Activities. Sci. Rep., 15.10.1038/s41598-024-85042-3 ↗
43. Progressive Failure and Quantitative Stability Analysis of Rock Slope with Cross-Type Discrete Fracture Network Using Spring-Based Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Method10.1016/j.aej.2024.06.054 ↗
44. The Key to Green Water-Preserved Mining: Prediction and Integration of Mining Rock Failure Height by Big Data Fusion Simulation Algorithm10.1016/j.psep.2024.11.096 ↗
45. Investigation on Prediction of Sandstone Failure Under Uniaxial Compression Based on Supervised Deep Learning10.1007/s00603-023-03435-8 ↗
46. Kulgatov, A., and Adoko, A.C. (2022, January 26–29). Revisiting Rockburst Predictive Models for Seismically Active Mines. Proceedings of the 56th U.S. Rock Mechanics/Geomechanics Symposium, Santa Fe, NM, USA.10.56952/ARMA-2022-0827 ↗
47. Maxutov, K., and Adoko, A.C. (2021, January 21–25). Establishing a Bayesian Network Model for Predicting Rockburst Damage Potential. Proceedings of the ISRM Regional Symposium-11th Asian Rock Mechanics Symposium, Beijing, China.
48. Interpretable Model for Rockburst Intensity Prediction Based on Shapley Values-Based Optuna-Random Forest10.1016/j.undsp.2024.09.002 ↗
49. Probability Estimates of Short-Term Rockburst Risk with Ensemble Classifiers10.1007/s00603-021-02369-3 ↗
50. Machine Learning Approach to Predicting the Macro-Mechanical Properties of Rock from the Meso-Mechanical Parameters10.1016/j.compgeo.2023.105933 ↗
51. Feng, X., Chen, B., Zhang, C., Li, S., and Wu, S. (2013). Mechanism, Warning and Dynamic Control of Rockburst Development Processes, Science Press.
52. Predicting Short-Term Rockburst Intensity Using a Weighted Probability Stacking Model with Optimal Feature Selection and Bayesian Hidden Layer10.1016/j.tust.2024.106021 ↗
53. Microseismic Energy and Intensity Criterion of Rockburst in Deep TBM Tunnels: A Case Study of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project10.1007/s11771-023-5324-6 ↗
54. SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique10.1613/jair.953 ↗
55. Quinlan, J.R. (1984). Learning Efficient Classification Procedures and Their Application to Chess End Games. Machine Learning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach, Symbolic Computation, Springer.10.1016/B978-0-08-051054-5.50019-4 ↗
56. Support-Vector Networks10.1023/A:1022627411411 ↗
57. Random Forrests10.1023/A:1010933404324 ↗
58. Ke, G., Meng, Q., Finley, T., Wang, T., Chen, W., Ma, W., Ye, Q., and Liu, T.-Y. (2017, January 4–9). LightGBM: A Highly Efficient Gradient Boosting Decision Tree. Proceedings of the Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30 (NIPS 2017), Long Beach, CA, USA.
59. Freund, Y., and Schapire, R.E. (1996, January 3–6). Experiments with a New Boosting Algorithm. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Bari, Italy.
60. Chen, T., and Guestrin, C. (2016, January 13–17). XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System. Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, San Francisco, CA, USA.10.1145/2939672.2939785 ↗
61. Greedy Function Approximation: A Gradient Boosting Machine10.1214/aos/1013203451 ↗
62. Cho, K., Merrienboer, B.V., Gulcehre, C., Bahdanau, D., Bougares, F., Schwenk, H., and Bengio, Y. (2014, January 25–29). Learning Phrase Representations Using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation. Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, Doha, Qatar.10.3115/v1/D14-1179 ↗
63. Nair, V., and Hinton, G.E. (2010, January 21–24). Rectified Linear Units Improve Restricted Boltzmann Machines. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Haifa, Israel.
64. Lundberg, S.M., and Lee, S.-I. (2017, January 4–9). A Unifed Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions. Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, Long Beach, CA, USA.
65. Interpretable Machine-Learning Models to Predict the Flexural Strength of Fiber-Reinforced SCM-Blended Concrete Composites10.1061/JSDCCC.SCENG-1496 ↗
66. Interpretable Machine-Learning Models for Predicting Creep Recovery of Concrete10.1002/suco.202400406 ↗
67. Short-Term Rockburst Prediction in Underground Project: Insights from an Explainable and Interpretable Ensemble Learning Model10.1007/s11440-023-01988-0 ↗