Calculation of Aging Coefficient for Establishing Aging Condition Index of Thermoplastic Insulated Power Cables

The growing demand for direct current transmission emphasizes the need for advanced insulation suitable for high-capacity, long-distance applications. Thermoplastics, especially polypropylene, offer several advantages over conventional materials like XLPE (cross-linked polyethylene) and EPR (ethylene propylene rubber), including higher thermal stability, recyclability, and reduced space charge accumulation. However, due to the inherent rigidity and limited flexibility of PP, its mechanical aging becomes a critical factor in assessing its long-term reliability as a cable insulation. In this study, mechanical aging characteristics, specifically declines in tensile strength and elongation, were selected as key indicators of insulation aging. Accelerated aging tests were conducted at 90 °C, 110 °C, and 130 °C for up to 5000 h. The experimental data were fitted to exponential models to derive aging coefficients, which formed the basis for the proposed aging model and the ACI (aging condition index). The ACI enables quantitative assessment of the current insulation condition and estimation of the remaining lifetime until a predefined threshold (e.g., ACI = 0.5) is reached. These findings contribute to the development of condition-based maintenance strategies and long-term asset management for power cables, offering practical insights for improving the reliability of future power grid systems.