Modeling and Key Parameter Interaction Analysis for Ship Central Cooling Systems

To achieve efficient prediction and optimization of the energy consumption of ship central cooling systems, this paper first constructed and validated a high-precision multi-physical domain simulation model of the ship central cooling system based on fluid heat transfer principles and the physical network method. Then, simulation experiments were designed using the Box–Behnken design (BBD) method to study the effects of five key parameters—main engine power, seawater temperature, seawater pump speed, low-temperature fresh water three-way valve opening, and low-temperature fresh water flow rate—on system energy consumption. Based on the simulation data, an energy consumption prediction model was constructed using response surface methodology (RSM). This prediction model exhibited excellent goodness of fit and prediction ability (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.9688, adjusted R2adj = 0.9438, predicted R2pred = 0.8752), with a maximum relative error of only 1.2% compared to the simulation data, confirming its high accuracy. Sensitivity analysis based on this prediction model indicated that main engine power, seawater pump speed, seawater temperature, and three-way valve opening were the dominant single factors affecting energy consumption. Further analysis revealed a significant interaction between main engine power and seawater pump speed. This interaction resulted in non-linear changes in system energy consumption, which were particularly prominent under operating conditions such as high power. This study provides an accurate prediction model and theoretical guidance on the influence patterns of key parameters for the simulation-driven design, operational optimization, and energy saving of ship central cooling systems.