Spatio-Temporal Deformation Prediction of Large Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Time-Series Graph Convolutional Network Model

The displacement–time curve of a landslide serves as a critical indicator of its movement state, with precise deformation prediction being essential for effective disaster early warning. While numerous studies have employed machine learning techniques to predict deformation at individual monitoring points, they often overlook the spatial correlations among monitoring points arranged along horizontal and vertical cross-sections. To address this limitation, this paper employs the Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) model, which integrates the strengths of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). The GCN captured spatial correlations among monitoring points, while the GRU modeled the temporal dynamics of displacement. The T-GCN model was applied to predict the spatio-temporal deformation of the Dawuchang landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Experimental results demonstrated that the T-GCN model effectively predicted the spatio-temporal displacement of landslides, offering a robust approach for landslide monitoring and early warning systems. The model also incorporated the temporal influence of external factors, such as rainfall and reservoir water levels, enhancing prediction accuracy and providing valuable insights for future research in landslide deformation forecasting.