Statistical Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations for Northern Sea Route Shipping
Source abstract
Abstract
The safe and efficient navigation of ships traversing the Northern Sea Route demands accurate information regarding sea ice concentration. However, the sea ice concentration forecasts employed to support such navigation are often flawed. To address this challenge, this study advances a statistical interpolation method aimed at reducing errors arising from traditional interpolation approaches. Additionally, this study introduces an autoregressive integrated moving average model, derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, for short-term sea ice concentration forecasts along the Northern Sea Route. The validity of the model has been confirmed through comparison with ensemble experiments from the Coupling Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, yielding reliable outcomes. The route availability is assessed on the basis of the sea ice concentration forecasts, indicating that the route will be available in the upcoming years. The proposed statistical models are also shown the capacity to facilitate effective management of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline
Research context
OpenAlex topics: Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Arctic and Russian Policy Studies · Climate change and permafrost
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Guangxi Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering Equipment and Technology, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
Key Laboratory of Beibu Gulf Offshore Engineering Equipment and Technology, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden
Funding
National Key R&D Program of China · Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities · Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology
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