Probabilistic analysis of underground pillar stability

Abstract The majority of geotechnical analyses are deterministic, in that the inherent variability of the materials is not modelled directly, rather some ‘factor of safety’ is applied to results computed using ‘average’ properties. In the present study, the influence of spatially varying strength is assessed via numerical experiments involving the compressive strength and stability of pillars typically used in underground construction and mining operations. The model combines random field theory with an elasto‐plastic finite element algorithm in a Monte‐Carlo framework. It is found that the average strength of the rock is not a good indicator of the overall strength of the pillar. The results of this study enable traditional approaches involving factors of safety to be re‐interpreted as a ‘probability of failure’ in the context of reliability based design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.