From Data to Decisions: Using Explainable Machine Learning to Predict EuroLeague Basketball Outcomes

Predicting basketball game outcomes in elite competitions is a complex task influenced by multiple interacting performance factors. This study applied a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to predict EuroLeague game outcomes using team-level game-related statistics. Four algorithms—Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Naïve Bayes (NB)—were trained and compared following recursive feature elimination (RFE) to identify the most informative predictors. The dataset comprised comprehensive in-game statistics describing shooting efficiency, rebounding, ball security, and spatial shot distribution. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1-score, ensuring both discrimination and calibration assessment. Among the four classifiers, SVM (AUC = 0.922, Accuracy = 0.841) and LR (AUC = 0.933, Accuracy = 0.818) achieved the highest predictive performance, outperforming RF and NB. Feature importance analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) on the best-performing SVM classifier revealed that true shooting percentage (TS%), defensive rebounds (DR), steals (ST), and turnovers (TO) were the most influential predictors of game outcomes. Teams that demonstrated higher shooting efficiency, greater rebounding control, and fewer turnovers showed a significantly higher probability of winning. These results confirm that well-validated and interpretable ML models can accurately predict game outcomes in professional basketball using readily available box-score statistics. The integration of RFE-based feature selection and SHAP interpretability provides transparent, evidence-based insights that can inform tactical decisions, enhance scouting accuracy, and support coaches in developing data-driven performance strategies within elite basketball environments.