Prediction of High-Risk Failures in Urban District Heating Pipelines Using KNN-Based Relabeling and AI Models

This study generated an AI (Artificial Intelligence)-based prediction model for identifying high-risk groups of failures in urban district heating pipelines using pipeline attribute information and historical failure records. A total of 324,495 records from normally operating pipelines and 2293 failure cases were collected. Because the dataset exhibited severe imbalance, a KNN (K Nearest Neighbors)-based similarity selection was applied to reclassify the top 10% of normal data most similar to failure cases as high-risk. Input variables for model development included pipe diameter, purpose, insulation level, year of burial, and burial environment, supplemented with derived variables to enhance predictive capacity. The dataset was trained using XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) v3.0.2, LightGBM (Light Gradient-Boosting Machine) v4.5.0, and an ensemble model (XGBoost + LightGBM), and the performance metrics were compared. The XGBoost model (K = 2) achieved the best results, with an F2-score of 0.921 and an AUC of 0.993. Variable importance analysis indicated that year of burial, insulation level, and purpose were the most influential features, highlighting pipeline aging and insulation condition as key determinants of high-risk classification. The proposed approach enables prioritization of failure risk management and identification of vulnerable sections using only attribute data, even in situations where sensor installation and infrared thermography are limited. Future research should consider distance functions suitable for mixed variables, sensitivity to unit length, and SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations)-based interpretability analysis to further generalize the model and enhance its field applicability.