Online Prediction of Concrete Temperature During the Construction of an Arch Dam Based on a Sparrow Search Algorithm–Incremental Support Vector Regression Model

The accurate prediction of concrete temperature during arch dam construction is essential for crack prevention. The internal temperature of the poured blocks is influenced by dynamic factors such as material properties, age, heat dissipation conditions, and temperature control measures, which are highly time-varying. Conventional temperature prediction models, which rely on offline data training, struggle to capture these time-varying dynamics, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy. To overcome these limitations, this study constructed a sparrow search algorithm–incremental support vector regression (SSA-ISVR) model for online concrete temperature prediction. First, the SSA was employed to optimize the penalty and kernel coefficients of the ISVR algorithm, minimizing errors between predicted and measured temperatures to establish a pretrained initial temperature prediction model. Second, untrained samples were dynamically monitored and incorporated using the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions to identify unlearned information, prompting model updates. Additionally, redundant samples were removed based on sample similarity and error-driven criteria to enhance training efficiency. Finally, the model’s accuracy and reliability were validated through actual case studies and compared to the LSTM, BP, and ISVR models. The results indicate that the SSA-ISVR model outperforms the aforementioned models, effectively capturing the temperature changes and accurately predicting the variations, with a mean absolute error of 0.14 °C.