Preliminary Safety Analysis of Megaconstellations in Low Earth Orbit: Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Collision Risks
Source abstract
Abstract
The deployment of megaconstellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses significant collision risks with space debris. This paper focuses on analyzing the short-term and long-term collision probabilities of megaconstellations to assess their collision risk. Firstly, a short-term collision risk evolution model is developed to accurately address rendezvous collisions. Secondly, a long-term collision risk evolution model is established by considering space object density, space debris attenuation, space target disintegration, and the distribution of disintegration targets. Through simulations conducted on the Starlink Phase I constellation, the results demonstrate a 30–40% increase in short-term collision probability within the constellation shell, a 70.2% probability of at least one collision during the constellation’s lifetime, and a 25.3% increase in secondary collisions following a collision event. This study provides a reference and application for analyzing the orbital safety of LEO megaconstellations and for promoting the sustainable development and utilization of space resources.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline
Research context
OpenAlex topics: Space Satellite Systems and Control · Space exploration and regulation · Space Exploration and Technology
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
Department of Aerospace Science and Technology, Space Engineering University, Beijing 101416, China
School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518033, China
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