A Variational-Mode-Decomposition-Cascaded Long Short-Term Memory with Attention Model for VIX Prediction

Financial time-series forecasting presents a significant challenge due to the inherent volatility and complex patterns in market data. This study introduces a novel forecasting framework that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with a Cascaded Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network enhanced by an Attention mechanism. The primary objective is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the VIX, a key measure of market uncertainty, through advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques. VMD is employed as a preprocessing step to decompose financial time-series data into multiple Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), effectively isolating short-term fluctuations from long-term trends. These decomposed features serve as inputs to a Cascaded LSTM model with an Attention mechanism, which enables the model to capture critical temporal dependencies, thereby improving forecasting performance. Experimental evaluations using VIX and S&P 500 data from January 2020 to December 2024 demonstrate the superior predictive capability of the proposed model compared to seven benchmark models. The results highlight the effectiveness of combining signal decomposition techniques with Attention-based deep learning architectures for financial market forecasting. This research contributes to the field by introducing a hybrid model that improves predictive accuracy, enhances robustness against market fluctuations, and underscores the importance of Attention mechanisms in capturing essential temporal dynamics.