Urban Signalized Intersection Traffic State Prediction: A Spatial–Temporal Graph Model Integrating the Cell Transmission Model and Transformer

This paper presents the Cell Transformer (CeT), which utilizes high-definition (HD) map data to predict future traffic states at signalized intersections, thereby aiding trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles. CeT employs discretized lane segments to emulate the cell transmission model, creating a cell space to forecast vehicle counts across all segments based on historical traffic data. CeT enhances prediction accuracy by distinguishing between different vehicle types by incorporating vehicle-type attributes into vehicle-state representations through multi-head attention. In this framework, cells are modeled as nodes in a directed graph, with dynamic connections representing variations in signal phases, thereby embedding spatial relationships and signal information within dynamic graphs. Temporal embeddings derived from time attributes are integrated with these graphs to generate comprehensive spatial–temporal representations. Utilizing an encoder–decoder architecture, CeT captures dependencies and correlations from past cell states to predict future traffic conditions. Validation using real traffic data from pNEUMA demonstrates that CeT significantly outperforms baseline models in two-phase signalized intersection scenarios, achieving reductions of 11.47% in Mean Absolute Error (MAE), 13.48% in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and an increase of 4.36% in Accuracy (ACC). In four-phase signalized intersection scenarios, CeT shows even greater effectiveness, with improvements of 13.36% in MAE, 12.93% in RMSE, and 4.78% in ACC. These results underscore CeT’s superior predictive capabilities and highlight the contributions of its core components.