Causal Factors in Elderly Pedestrian Traffic Injuries Based on Association Analysis

In traffic accidents, elderly individuals face a significantly higher risk of mortality compared with other age groups. To investigate the factors contributing to elderly pedestrian accidents and their impact on injury severity, 1420 motor vehicle/elderly pedestrian collisions from the 2019–2023 Chinese Traffic Accident Deep Investigation Database were analyzed using the FP-growth algorithm. This analysis identified 5594 association rules across 28 types of variables within 4 categories of influencing factors. Logistic regression results indicate that pedestrian age, collision speed, time of occurrence, and accident location are significant factors affecting the mortality rate of elderly pedestrians in traffic accidents. Specifically, pedestrian age and collision speed significantly influence mortality rates. As collision speed increases, the mortality rate rises markedly. For elderly pedestrians aged 60 and above, the mortality rate increases by 3.7% with each additional year of age. Moreover, accidents occurring at night, in suburban areas, or in villages are associated with a higher mortality rate. This study offers scientific support for the formulation of safety measures aimed at improving the traffic safety of elderly pedestrians.