First to Score, First to Win? Comparing Match Outcomes and Developing a Predictive Model of Success Using Performance Metrics at the FIFA Club World Cup 2025

In the present study, 96 teams’ performances across 48 matches in the group stage of the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 were analyzed. Teams scoring first won 62.5% of matches (p < 0.05), while goals were evenly distributed between halves (p > 0.05) and showed marginal variation across six 15 min intervals, peaking near the 30–45 and 75–90 min marks. Parametric analyses revealed a significant effect of match outcome on possession, with winning teams exhibiting higher average possession (53.3%) compared to losing and drawing teams. Non-parametric analyses identified significant differences between match outcomes for goals scored, attempts at goal, total and completed passes, pass completion rate, defensive line breaks, receptions in the final third, ball progressions, defensive pressures, and total distance covered. Winning teams scored more goals and registered more attempts on target than losing teams, although some metrics showed no significant difference between wins and draws. Logistic regression analysis identified attempts at goal on target, defensive pressures, total completed passes, total distance covered, and receptions in the final third as significant predictors of match success (AUC = 0.85), correctly classifying 80.2% of match outcomes. These results emphasized the crucial role of offensive accuracy and possession dominance in achieving success in elite football.