Dissolved Oxygen Modeling by a Bayesian-Optimized Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a vital water quality index influencing biological processes in aquatic environments. Accurate modeling of DO levels is crucial for maintaining ecosystem health and managing freshwater resources. To this end, the present study contributes a Bayesian-optimized explainable machine learning (ML) model to reveal DO dynamics and predict DO concentrations. Three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), regression tree (RT), and boosting ensemble, coupled with Bayesian optimization (BO), are employed to estimate DO levels in the Mississippi River. It is concluded that the BO-SVR model outperforms others, achieving a coefficient of determination (CD) of 0.97 and minimal error metrics (root mean square error = 0.395 mg/L, mean absolute error = 0.303 mg/L). Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) analysis identifies temperature, discharge, and gage height as the most dominant factors affecting DO levels. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the models under varying input conditions. With perturbations from 5% to 30%, the temperature sensitivity ranges from 1.0% to 6.1%, discharge from 0.9% to 5.2%, and gage height from 0.8% to 5.0%. Although the models experience reduced accuracy with extended prediction horizons, they still achieve satisfactory results (CD > 0.75) for forecasting periods of up to 30 days. The established models also exhibit higher accuracy than many prior approaches. This study highlights the potential of BO-optimized explainable ML models for reliable DO forecasting, offering valuable insights for water resource management.