Reliability Prediction for New Prefabricated Track Structures Based on the Fuzzy Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis Method

This paper aims to address the problems of safety and durability in China’s ballastless track structures, particularly the lack of accurate analysis and methods for predicting the reliability of the new type of prefabricated track structure during the design phase. We propose a reliability prediction method for a new prefabricated track structure, the modular assembled track structure with built-in position retention. By adopting the fuzzy Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (fuzzy FMECA) method, a comprehensive assessment of fault severity, fault occurrence probability, and fault detection difficulty is conducted on the CRTS II slab track structure and the modular assembled track structure with built-in position retention. Consequently, a fault mode hazard assessment model for the new prefabricated track structure is constructed. Based on the assessment model and using a similar product method, a reliability prediction model for the new prefabricated track structure is established, and reliability prediction for the track structure is conducted. The research results indicate that the modular assembled track structure with built-in position retention has lower hazard levels and higher reliability compared to the CRTS II slab track structure. This study provides a scientific basis for the design optimization of new prefabricated track structures, helping to improve their safety and reliability, reduce operating and maintenance costs, and thereby promote the green and low-carbon development of the railway.