Anthropic Action on Historical Shoreline Changes and Future Estimates Using GIS: Guadarmar Del Segura (Spain)

A good understanding of historical change rates is a key requirement for effective coastal zone management and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution. Historical shoreline erosion for the coast of Guardamar del Segura (Alicante, Spain) is analyzed based on aerial photographs dating from 1930 to 2022 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). This area is of special interest because the construction of a breakwater in the 1990s, which channels the mouth of the Segura River, has caused a change in coastal behavior. The prediction of future shorelines is conducted up to the year 2040 using two models based on data analysis techniques: the extrapolation of historical data (including the uncertainty of the historical measurements) and the Bruun-type model (considering the effect of sea level rises). The extrapolation of the natural erosion of the area up to 1989 is also compared with the reality, already affected by anthropic actions, in the years 2005 and 2022. The construction of the breakwater has accelerated the erosion along the coast downstream of this infrastructure by about 260%, endangering several houses that are located on the beach itself. The estimation models predict transects with erosions ranging from centimeters (±70 cm) to tens of meters (±30 m). However, both models are often overlapping, which gives a band where the shoreline may be thought to be in the future. The extrapolation of erosion up to 1989, and its subsequent comparison, shows that in most of the study areas, anthropic actions have increased erosion, reaching values of more than 35 m of shoreline loss. The effect of anthropic actions on the coast is also analyzed on the housing on the beach of Babilonia, which has lost around 17% of its built-up area in 40 years. This work demonstrates the importance of historical analysis and predictions before making any significant changes in coastal areas to develop sustainable plans for coastal area management.