Geotechnical Stability Analysis of the Tiga Dam, Nigeria on the Assessment of Downstream Soil Properties, Erosion Risk, and Seasonal Expansion

The Tiga Dam, a primary hydraulic structure in northern Nigeria, is subjected to intense hydrological stress during the rainy season, posing potential risks to its structural integrity. This study investigates the geotechnical properties and stability of the Tiga Dam in Kano State, Nigeria. Twelve soil samples from the downstream area were analyzed for specific gravity, grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, compaction parameters, permeability, and shear strength. The dam’s stability was assessed using Plaxis 2D under various reservoir conditions. Soil erodibility was evaluated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and a linear regression model with noise was developed to predict soil expansion rates. The results showed heterogeneous soil properties, with specific gravity ranging from 2.11 to 2.63 and permeability from 3.40 × 10−9 to 1.49 × 10−7 m/s. Stability analysis revealed factors of safety of 1.322, 1.006, 1.002, and 1.147 for high reservoir, rapid drawdown, slow drawdown, and low reservoir conditions, respectively. The RUSLE K factor ranged from 0.055 to 0.145, indicating low to moderate soil erodibility. The expansion rate model demonstrated high accuracy (R2 = 0.989) in predicting seasonal and long-term soil expansion trends, with peak rates increasing from 16.94 mm/month in 2010–2013 to 19.45 mm/month in 2017–2020. This comprehensive analysis provides crucial insights into the Tiga Dam’s geotechnical behavior, highlighting potential vulnerabilities and the need for targeted management strategies to ensure long-term stability and safety.