Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Autonomous Trucks: From the Perspective of the Total Cost of Operation in Logistics

This study explored the economic influence of introducing fully autonomous trucks (ATs) on the total cost of operation (TCO) from the viewpoint of freight transport operators. We utilized the cost–benefit analysis and scenario planning frameworks using a case study of a middle-mile route between a port and a large logistics distribution center in South Korea, where an autonomous truck pilot project has been running for several years. We employed a data source obtained from Hanjin Transportation Co., LTD., which enables us to reflect the actual expenses of operating freight transportation in the context of the study route. The findings of this study indicate that ATs would attain substantial operation cost savings for freight transport operators across all five scenarios, ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic. Specifically, results of the base scenario reveal that monthly TCO decreases by 56.25, 47.04, 42.97, and 41.73 percent for 1-, 5-, 12-, and 25-ton trucks, respectively. The cost reduction per month was USD 2399 for a 1-ton truck, USD 2891 for a 5-ton truck, and USD 3438 for a 12-ton truck. Even in the most pessimistic scenario, the operation cost savings for operating with ATs in the route are USD 1415, USD 1642, USD 1985, and USD 2222 per month for 1-, 5-, 12-, and 25-ton trucks, respectively. When factoring in changes in cost, the wage reduction for vehicle drivers was substantial (USD 2430, USD 2835, USD 3240, and USD 3645 for 1-, 5-, 12-, and 25-ton trucks, respectively). However, remote operation was a new cost factor that increased TCO, which increased by USD 243,384,357 in the base case. This study’s findings have multiple implications, including (1) informing economic efficiency and productivity of operating autonomous vehicles (AVs), (2) providing insights on indicative cost estimates for AV operations, (3) providing valuable information for making informed investment decisions, and (4) supporting the notion that freight transport is an especially attractive market for AVs.