journal article·2022-08-26Open access

Time Series and Non-Time Series Models of Earthquake Prediction Based on AETA Data: 16-Week Real Case Study

Chenyang Wang, Chaorun Li, Shanshan Yong, Xin’an Wang, Chao Yang

Applied Sciences· Volume 12· Issue 17

Abstract

The Key Laboratory of Integrated Microsystems (IMS) of Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School has deployed a self-developed acoustic and electromagnetics to artificial intelligence (AETA) system on a large scale and at a high density in China to comprehensively monitor and collect the precursor anomaly signals that occur before earthquakes for seismic prediction. This paper constructs several classic time series and non-time series prediction models for comparison and analysis in order to find the most suitable earthquake-prediction model among these models. The long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which gains the best results in earthquake prediction based on AETA data extracted from the precursor anomaly signals, is selected for real-earthquake prediction for 16 consecutive weeks.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline

Research context

OpenAlex topics: Earthquake Detection and Analysis · Seismology and Earthquake Studies · earthquake and tectonic studies

SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.

Affiliations

The Key Laboratory of Integrated Microsystems, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China

Faculty of Engineering, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen 518172, China

Funding

Shenzhen Science and Technology Program · Youth Innovation Talent Project of Guangdong Province Universities

References (47)

Show source-provided references
1. Research and Implementation of Multi-component Seismic Monitoring System AETA
2. Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I10.1016/0040-1951(84)90059-3 ↗
3. Low-frequency magnetic-field measurements near the epicenter of the ms-7.1 Loma-Prieta earthquake10.1029/GL017i009p01465 ↗
4. Seismic electromagnetic signals (SEMS) explained by a simulation experiment using electromagnetic waves10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00135-6 ↗
5. Magnetic field variations associated with SES10.2183/pjab.77.87 ↗
6. Electric Fields that “Arrive’’ before the Time Derivative of the Magnetic Field prior to Major Earthquakes10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.148501 ↗
7. Controlled analogue experiments on propagation of seismic electromagnetic signals10.1360/982004-312 ↗
8. Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics10.1016/j.tecto.2008.07.019 ↗
9. Identifying long-range correlated signals upon significant periodic data loss10.1016/j.tecto.2011.02.011 ↗
10. Natural time analysis of critical phenomena: The case of pre-fracture electromagnetic emissions10.1063/1.4807908 ↗
11. Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001–201010.1002/2014JA019789 ↗
12. Criticality features in ULF magnetic fields prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake10.2183/pjab.91.25 ↗
13. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the possible coupling of multiple pre-earthquake phenomena10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011 ↗
14. Sarlis, N.V. (2018). Statistical Significance of Earth’s Electric and Magnetic Field Variations Preceding Earthquakes in Greece and Japan Revisited. Entropy, 20.10.3390/e20080561 ↗
15. Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas10.29382/eqs-2018-0005-5 ↗
16. Varotsos, P.A., Sarlis, N.V., and Skordas, E.S. (2022). Order Parameter and Entropy of Seismicity in Natural Time before Major Earthquakes: Recent Results. Geosciences, 12.10.3390/geosciences12060225 ↗
17. Detection Method of Earthquake Disaster Image Anomaly Based on SIFT Feature and SVM Classification
18. Rapid prediction of earthquake ground shaking intensity using raw waveform data and a convolutional neural network10.1093/gji/ggaa233 ↗
19. Xiong, P., Long, C., Zhou, H.Y., Battiston, R., Zhang, X.M., and Shen, X.H. (2020). Identification of Electromagnetic Pre-Earthquake Perturbations from the DEMETER Data by Machine Learning. Remote Sens., 12.10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2506 ↗
20. Efficient Seismic Stability Analysis of Embankment Slopes Subjected to Water Level Changes Using Gradient Boosting Algorithms10.3389/feart.2021.807317 ↗
21. Machine Learning for Fast and Reliable Source-Location Estimation in Earthquake Early Warning10.1109/LGRS.2022.3142714 ↗
22. Detecting anomalies in time series data via a deep learning algorithm combining wavelets, neural networks and Hilbert transform10.1016/j.eswa.2017.04.028 ↗
23. Hybrid Event Detection and Phase-Picking Algorithm Using Convolutional and Recurrent Neural Networks10.1785/0220180319 ↗
24. Detection and Classification of Continuous Volcano-Seismic Signals with Recurrent Neural Networks. IEEE Trans10.1109/TGRS.2018.2870202 ↗
25. Jena, R., Pradhan, B., and Alamri, A.M. (2020). Susceptibility to Seismic Amplification and Earthquake Probability Estimation Using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Model in Odisha, India. Appl. Sci., 10.10.3390/app10155355 ↗
26. Real-time regional seismic damage assessment framework based on long short-term memory neural network10.1111/mice.12628 ↗
27. Detection of possible hydrological precursor anomalies using long short-term memory: A case study of the 1996 Lijiang earthquake10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126369 ↗
28. Recurrent neural networks for complicated seismic dynamic response prediction of a slope system10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106198 ↗
29. LSTM-Autoencoder Network for the Detection of Seismic Electric Signals. IEEE Trans10.1109/TGRS.2022.3183389 ↗
30. Periodic electromagnetic signals as potential precursor for seismic activity10.1007/s11771-021-4739-1 ↗
31. Bao, Z., Zhao, J., Huang, P., Yong, S., and Wang, X. (2021). Deep Learning-Based Electromagnetic Signal for Earthquake Magnitude Prediction. Sensors, 21.10.3390/s21134434 ↗
32. Development of Inductive Magnetic Sensor for Multi-component Seismic Monitoring System AETA
33. A sliding window-based algorithm for faster transformation of time series into complex networks10.1063/1.5112782 ↗
34. Bao, Z., Yong, S., Wang, X., Yang, C., Xie, J., and He, C. (2021). Seismic Reflection Analysis of AETA Electromagnetic Signals. Appl. Sci., 11.10.3390/app11135869 ↗
35. A-SMOTE: A New Preprocessing Approach for Highly Imbalanced Datasets by Improving SMOTE10.2991/ijcis.d.191114.002 ↗
36. Liang, W., Luo, S., Zhao, G., and Wu, H. (2020). Predicting Hard Rock Pillar Stability Using GBDT, XGBoost, and LightGBM Algorithms. Mathematics, 8.10.3390/math8050765 ↗
37. The Comparison of LightGBM and XGBoost Coupling Factor Analysis and Prediagnosis of Acute Liver Failure10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3042848 ↗
38. A neural network primer10.1142/S0218339094000179 ↗
39. Core vector machines: Fast SVM training on very large data sets
40. A comparison of random forest variable selection methods for classification prediction modeling10.1016/j.eswa.2019.05.028 ↗
41. Displacement prediction of Jiuxianping landslide using gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks10.1007/s11440-022-01495-8 ↗
42. Liu, Y., Yong, S., He, C., Wang, X., Bao, Z., Xie, J., and Zhang, X. (2022). An Earthquake Forecast Model Based on Multi-Station PCA Algorithm. Appl. Sci., 12.10.3390/app12073311 ↗
43. Time Series Feature Extraction on basis of Scalable Hypothesis tests (tsfresh-A Python package)10.1016/j.neucom.2018.03.067 ↗
44. Cross-Validation for Imbalanced Datasets: Avoiding Overoptimistic and Overfitting Approaches10.1109/MCI.2018.2866730 ↗
45. Hosmer, D.W., and Lemeshow, S. (2000). Applied Logistic Regression, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.10.1002/0471722146 ↗
46. An introduction to ROC analysis10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010 ↗
47. Visualization of the significance of Receiver Operating Characteristics based on confidence ellipses10.1016/j.cpc.2013.12.009 ↗