Preliminary Study on the Generating Mechanism of the Atmospheric Vertical Electric Field before Earthquakes

Precursor signals for earthquakes, such as radon anomalies, thermal anomalies, and water level changes, have been studied in earthquake prediction over several centuries. The atmospheric vertical electric field anomaly has been observed in recent years as a new and valuable signal for short-term earthquake prediction. In this paper, a physical mechanism of the atmospheric vertical electric field anomaly before the earthquake was proposed, based on which the Wenchuan earthquake verified the correctness of the model. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the variation of the radon concentration with height before the earthquake was used to simulate and calculate the ionization rates of radioactive radon decay products at different heights. We derived the atmospheric vertical electric field from −593 to −285 V/m from the surface to 10 m before the earthquake by solving the system of convection-diffusion partial equations for positive and negative particles. Moreover, negative atmospheric electric field anomalies were observed in both Wenjiang and Pixian before the Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May, with peaks of −600 V/m in Pixian and −200 V/m in Wenjiang. The atmospheric electric field data obtained from the simulation were shown to be in excellent concordance with the observed data of the Wenchuan earthquake. The physical mechanism can provide theoretical support for the atmospheric electric field anomaly as an earthquake precursor.