Climate Change and the Dung Beetle: Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on the Distribution of Phyllognathus excavatus (Forster, 1771) through the Mediterranean Region

Climate change poses a significant threat to ecosystems, food security, and human well-being. This study focuses on the Phyllognathus excavatus beetle, an important insect species in the Mediterranean region with ecological importance in nature recycling of organic wastes. The aim of this study is to assess its current habitat suitability and predict its distribution under future climate scenarios. The beetle’s occurrence records were gathered and climate information, including 19 bioclimatic variables, was retrieved from the Global Biodiversity Informatic Facility (GBIF) and WorldClim depository, respectively. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to calculate habitat appropriateness using geographic information systems (GISs) and species distribution modeling (SDM) with an accuracy of 0.907 using the AUC test. The findings show that the annual mean temperature is the most important factor, with the beetle flourishing in temperatures between 13.9 and 19.1 °C. The distribution is greatly impacted by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Future projections using different climate scenarios suggest potential changes in the beetle’s distribution. By integrating climate data and occurrence records, this study provides insights into the vulnerability of Phyllognathus excavatus to climate change and identifies regions where its habitat may be at risk as 81% of its current habitat will be lost. The research helps to prioritize efforts to reduce the harmful effects of climate change on insect biodiversity and to design effective conservation strategies. Overall, this study advances our knowledge of the Phyllognathus excavatus beetle’s present and projected distribution patterns in the Mediterranean region under the influence of climate change. It illustrates the significance of taking into account how climate change would affect insect populations and the use of SDM and GIS tools for researching and protecting insect biodiversity.