Integrated Hydrological Analysis of Little Akaki Watershed Using SWAT-MODFLOW, Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, groundwater is the main source of freshwater to support human consumption and socio-economic development. Little Akaki watershed is located in Upper Awash basin, known for its high annual rainfall and considered as the potential groundwater recharge zone. On the contrary, urbanization and industrial expansion are increasing at an alarming rate in the area. This became a concern threatening the groundwater resources’ sustainability. To address these challenges, integrated analysis of groundwater recharge and groundwater numerical simulations were made. For groundwater recharge estimation, SWAT model was used. The result indicated that recharge in the watershed mostly occurs from July to October with maximum values in August. On average, the estimated annual catchment recharge was 179 mm. For the numerical simulation and prediction of the groundwater flow system, MODFLOW 2005 was used. The model simulations indicated that the groundwater head converges towards the main river and, finally, to the outlet of the watershed. The study indicated areas of interactions between the river and groundwater. The scenario examination result reveals increasing the present pumping rate by over fifty percent (by 50%, 100%, and 200%) will surely cause visible groundwater head decline near the outlet of the watershed, and substantial river baseflow reduction. The recharge reduction scenario also indicates the huge risk of groundwater sustainability in the area.