Efficient Diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Optimized Machine Learning Models Based on Structural MRI

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects approximately 1.4% of the population and imposes significant social and economic burdens. Because its etiology is unknown, effective diagnosis is challenging. Advancements in structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) allow for the objective assessment of ASD by examining structural brain changes. Recently, machine learning (ML)-based diagnostic systems have emerged to expedite and enhance the diagnostic process. However, the expected success in ASD was not yet achieved. This study evaluates and compares the performance of seven optimized ML models to identify sMRI-based biomarkers for early and accurate detection of ASD in children aged 5 to 10 years. The effect of using hyperparameter tuning and feature selection techniques are investigated using two public datasets from Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange Initiative. Furthermore, these models are tested on a local Saudi dataset to verify their generalizability. The integration of the grey wolf optimizer with a support vector machine achieved the best performance with an average accuracy of 71% (with further improvement to 71% after adding personal features) using 10-fold Cross-validation. The optimized models identified relevant biomarkers for diagnosis, lending credence to their truly generalizable nature and advancing scientific understanding of neurological changes in ASD.