Machine Learning and Generative AI in Learning Analytics for Higher Education: A Systematic Review of Models, Trends, and Challenges

This systematic review examines how machine learning (ML) and generative AI (GenAI) have been integrated into learning analytics (LA) in higher education (2018–2025). Following PRISMA 2020, we screened 9590 records and included 101 English-language, peer-reviewed empirical studies that applied ML or GenAI within LA contexts. Records came from 12 databases (last search 15 March 2025), and the results were synthesized via thematic clustering. ML approaches dominate LA tasks, such as engagement prediction, dropout-risk modelling, and academic-performance forecasting, whereas GenAI—mainly transformer models like GPT-4 and BERT—is emerging in real-time feedback, adaptive learning, and sentiment analysis. Studies spanned world regions. Most ML papers (n = 75) examined engagement or dropout, while GenAI papers (n = 26) focused on adaptive feedback and sentiment analysis. No formal risk-of-bias assessment was conducted due to heterogeneity. While ML methods are well-established, GenAI applications remain experimental and face challenges related to transparency, pedagogical grounding, and implementation feasibility. This review offers a comparative synthesis of paradigms and outlines future directions for responsible, inclusive, theory-informed AI use in education.