Prediction of Pile Bearing Capacity Using XGBoost Algorithm: Modeling and Performance Evaluation

The major criteria that control pile foundation design is pile bearing capacity (Pu). The load bearing capacity of piles is affected by the various characteristics of soils and the involvement of multiple parameters related to both soil and foundation. In this study, a new model for predicting bearing capacity is developed using an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. A total of 200 driven piles static load test-based case histories were used to construct and verify the model. The developed XGBoost model results were compared to a number of commonly used algorithms—Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using various performance measure metrics such as coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute relative error, Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and relative strength ratio. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of input parameters on Pu. The results show that all of the developed models were capable of making accurate predictions however the XGBoost algorithm surpasses others, followed by AdaBoost, RF, DT, and SVM. The sensitivity analysis result shows that the SPT blow count along the pile shaft has the greatest effect on the Pu.