Simulation of uncertainties in shrinkage and creep effects in concrete

This paper addresses the simulation of uncertainties in shrinkage and creep effects in concrete structures. Extant models of shrinkage and creep are summarized and compared, such as the CEB-FIP 90 model, the ACI 209-92 model, the B3 model, the BP-KX model and the BP model. The statistical properties, mean value and coefficient variation, of every basic variables related to the cited models are presented, as well as that of models. Because there are too many factors influencing the properties of the shrinkage and the creep in concrete, the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is introduced as a method for simulating the uncertainties of these time effects in concrete. Given the properties of concrete and the ambient environment, the uncertainties of shrinkage and creep effects are simulated using LHS. Results indicate that the Comité Euro-International du Béton and American Concrete Institute models provide the best predictions of uncertainties of concrete shrinkage and creep, respectively.