Semi-probabilistic failure analysis of masonry veneer walls under lateral loading using a Discrete Macro-Element Model

Recent stochastic finite element analyses considering spatial variability of materials have demonstrated high accuracy in capturing the nonlinear behaviour of unreinforced masonry veneer walls under horizontal out-of-plane loading. However, these approaches are computationally complex, CPU-intensive, and time-consuming. Therefore, developing a simpler yet accurate nonlinear analysis methodology remains essential to evaluate the performance of masonry veneer systems efficiently. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-stage methodology utilising the Discrete Macro-Element Method (DMEM) for nonlinear static analysis under uniform out-of-plane (lateral) loading, simulating wind or inertia (seismic) actions in inward and outward directions. The process begins with the numerical simulation of an experimental campaign available in the literature, which is used to assess the model's accuracy using HiStrA software. Building on this foundation, multiple simulations are conducted by varying key material strength parameters according to their experimentally observed probability distributions. The results are analysed in terms of variations in the system's load–displacement (capacity) curves and failure mechanisms, compared against experimental data to evaluate the influence of each parameter on the global structural response. The findings demonstrate the potential of the DMEM approach to deliver valuable insights into the structural failure mechanisms of masonry veneer systems with significantly limited computational cost.