The impact of the business cycle in the construction industry on cement production in Poland

The article evaluates the impact of the business cycle in the building industry on the volume of cement production in Poland. Therefore, a dynamic congruent econometric model was constructed and estimated, where the volume of cement production was a dependent variable. The set of potential explanatory processes includes four selected indicators describing the economic situation on the building market: the current domestic investment portfolio, the utilization of the production capacity by construction companies, the current domestic production, and the current financial situation of construction companies. These indicators came from surveys conducted by the Central Statistical Office using the so-called „business cycle testing”, based on a questionnaire survey. The study showed that the only important causal factor related to the volume of cement production is the use of production capacity by construction companies. This process proved to be significant as the current process (in the time period) and with a one-month lag (in the time period t-1).