Parameter uncertainty and statistical analysis of tyre-pavement interaction under braking

This study evaluates the influence of uncertain input parameters on pavement responses in a critical braking scenario. Tyre-pavement interaction is simulated using a fast semi-analytical model. The primary objective is to identify the key stochastic variables associated with equivalent strain, a criterion for surface cracking initiation. The investigation follows a two-level full factorial experiment based on several input parameters, such as pavement properties and applied loads. A first-order surrogate model enables localised strain evaluation at each mesh element. The friction coefficient, vertical load, and surface course stiffness are identified as the most critical factors influencing surface damage in the tyre-pavement contact zone. These factors can contribute to an increase of up to 100 microstrains in critical strain magnitude. The study also highlights that base thickness and modulus have a limited impact on maximum surface strain, primarily due to the dominance of shear mechanisms driven by tractive forces.