Asphalt binder selection for future Canadian climatic conditions using various pavement temperature prediction models

Over the past 20 years, climate scientists have predicted that anthropogenic climate change would lead to an increase in global temperatures. In addition, the trends were predicted to further aggravate in the near future. Recent studies stated that this climate change has had a significant impact on pavement performance. As asphalt binder is susceptible to changes in temperature, it is necessary to understand the influence of climate change on asphalt binder grade selections. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the new asphalt binder grades for Canada using the projected climate data. To achieve this, average seven-day maximum pavement temperature and a minimum pavement temperature were determined using the three different pavement temperature prediction models: SHRP, LTPP and EICM to estimate the asphalt binder (PG XX – YY). This paper presents a summary of revised asphalt binder grades for 28 different locations across Canada.