Temperature variations and frozen zone migration: assessing the influence of climate change on fatigue cracking in roadway asphalt pavements – a case study of seven provinces in China

Both temperature fluctuations and migrations in frozen zone distribution resulting from climate change can influence fatigue cracking in asphalt pavement. This study focused on seven provinces in China, utilising climate prediction data from 2021 to 2100 to analyse temperature variations and frozen zone migrations over the next 80 years. The study calculated the fatigue cracking of asphalt pavements on freeways and secondary roadways under the influence of these two factors. Additionally, a Fatigue Cracking Climate Index (FCCI) was introduced to reflect the extent of climate change impact on fatigue cracking. Research findings indicate that the rising temperatures associated with climate change adversely affect fatigue cracking. Conversely, the migration of frozen zones tends to alleviate this adverse impact. Overall, fatigue cracking is gradually exacerbated under the influence of climate change. In the region of interest, a majority of the asphalt pavements experience negative effects from climate change on fatigue cracking.