Macro Economic and Ecological Aspects of Cell Production in Europe 2030

Factory announcements for battery production are increasing in number as European demand for battery cells grows. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (108 projects as of October 2025) with risk factors for individual projects, the predicted theoretical production capacity for lithium-ion batteries in Europe will rise to 1.1–1.5 TWh, enabling a real production output of 0.8–1.0 TWh by 2030. Our analysis suggests necessary cumulative investments in battery cell gigafactories of 36–139 billion euros by 2030. The industrial output of LIB cells in 2030 will have a value of 35–99 billion euros, of which the market size of battery production is around 6–17 billion euros. Furthermore, 43,000–174,000 direct jobs could be created, with the strongest impacts seen in Eastern Europe by the end of the decade. The raw material demand generated by this industry rises steeply: lithium will rise from 14 kt in 2025 to 47–133 kt, and nickel from 83 kt to 226–640 kt by 2030, implying continued import dependencies. The energy demand of European cell production will be 8.4–19.9 TWh in 2030. Furthermore, CO2 emissions of cell production will be 1.6 to 3.7 Mt CO2-eq in 2030. The volume of production scrap is estimated at 160–398 kt in 2030, creating near-term demand for recycling capacities.