Modeling the brittle–ductile transition in ferritic steels. Part II: analysis of scatter in fracture toughness

A dislocation simulation model has been proposed to predict the brittle–ductile transition in ferritic steels in Part I. Here we extend the model to address the problem of inherent scatter in fracture toughness measurements. We carried out a series of Monte Carlo simulations using distributions of microcracks situated on the plane of a main macrocrack. Detailed statistical analysis of the simulation results showed the following: (a) fracture is initiated at one of the microcracks whose size is at the tail of the size distribution function, and (b) the inherent scatter arises from the distribution in the size of the critical microcrack that initiates the fracture and not from the variation of the location of the critical microcrack. Utilizing the weakest-link theory, Weibull analysis shows good agreement with the Weibull modulus values obtained from fracture toughness measurements.