A causal time-varying analysis method for assessing impacts of cracks on service states of concrete dams

This study proposes a causal time-varying (CTV) analysis method to assess the effect of cracks on the service state of concrete dams through analysis of the impacts of cracks on effect variables, such as the deformation, stress, and strain of the dam. Specifically, the CTV characteristics of changes in the effect variables were first analysed considering both the causal action mechanisms between the contributing factors and effect variables, and the time-varying characteristics of the causal effect; then, the cracks were regarded as a contributing factor on the effect variables of concrete dams. On this basis, a CTV analysis model was established, which consisted of an analytical model of impact degrees and an analytical model of impact sensitivity of cracks on effect variables. Accordingly, the CTV analysis method for impacts of cracks on service states of concrete dams was built. The case study shows that the method is reasonable and feasible.