Human-centric lighting asset management for LED bulbs: a context-driven approach on prognostics and maintenance strategy development in public libraries

Traditional asset management of lighting systems typically focuses on functionality, cost, and lifespan. In contrast, a human-centric approach prioritizes social sustainability and user well-being by ensuring lighting assets “provide the right light at the right time” for diverse activities. Light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs, known for energy efficiency and longevity, have become a preferred choice, yet public libraries often struggle to manage these assets sustainably, remaining in a reactive “fix/replace when it breaks” stage. Current predictive methods, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, rely on laboratory data that often overlook real-world contexts, leading to performance gaps. This paper presents a context-driven, human-centric methodology for LED prognosis and maintenance strategies in public libraries, employing limited degradation data from LED testing. Advanced analytical techniques, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), support a shift from function-based to performance-based reliability assessment. By incorporating Mean Time of Exposure (MTOE) and Critical Integrated Levels (CILs), the approach defines optimal maintenance inspection intervals. This research enhances sustainable LED lighting management in public libraries, offering a framework adaptable to broader applications and aligned with human-centric goals..