Sequential Monte-Carlo sampling based on a committee of artificial neural networks for posterior state estimation and residual lifetime prediction

Abstract The application of Bayesian methods to the problem of fatigue crack growth prediction has been growing in recent years. In particular, sequential Monte-Carlo sampling is often presented as an efficient model-based technique to filter the sequential measures of the damage evolution provided as an input to the algorithm. However, a lot of measures are required to reliably identify the system state condition and the underlying model parameters. Many studies rely on the availability of a relatively dense sequence of crack length measures during damage evolution, made in most cases impractical by the consequent maintenance costs. Thus, real-time damage diagnosis is a requirement to enable prognostic health management. This work focuses on the application of sequential Monte-Carlo sampling to estimate the probabilistic residual life of a structural component subjected to fatigue crack propagation, while real-time estimation of crack length is provided through a committee of artificial neural networks, trained with finite element simulated strain patterns. Multiple crack length observations are available at each discrete time and are provided as the input to the prognostic system, based on a sequential importance resampling algorithm. Each time a new set of measures is available, the algorithm evaluates the posterior distribution of the augmented state vector, including the crack length and a material parameter governing damage evolution. This filtered information is used to numerically update the probability density functions of the residual life of the component. The methodology is applied first to a simulated crack and then to a metallic stiffened panel specimen subject to fatigue crack growth.