Statistical inference of equivalent initial flaw size with complicated structural geometry and multi-axial variable amplitude loading

Abstract This paper presents several efficient statistical inference techniques to calibrate the equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) of fatigue cracks for mechanical components with complicated geometry and multi-axial, variable amplitude loading. Finite element analysis is used to address the complicated geometry and calculate the stress intensity factors. Multi-modal stress intensity factors due to multi-axial loading are combined to calculate an equivalent stress intensity factor using a characteristic plane approach. During cycle-by-cycle integration of the crack growth law, a Gaussian process surrogate model is used to replace the expensive finite element analysis, resulting in rapid computation. Experimental data (crack size after a particular number of loading cycles) and statistical methods are used to calibrate the EIFS. The methods of least squares and maximum likelihood method are extended to evaluate the entire probability distribution of EIFS. Bayesian techniques are also implemented for this purpose. A fast numerical integration technique is developed as an efficient alternative to the expensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling approach in the Bayesian analysis. An application problem of cracking in a cylindrical structure is used to illustrate the proposed methods.