A hybrid probabilistic-deterministic framework for prediction of characteristic size of corrosion pits in low-carbon steel following long-term seawater exposure

A hybrid deterministic-probabilistic framework is presented that combines in-situ measurements and numerical analysis to predict the characteristic size of corrosion pits over extended periods of exposure to seawater. A probabilistic model, informed by corrosion current density and temperature data, applies a sampling method to a range of overpotential values to reflect the surface deterioration in terms of pitting. The model is calibrated and validated with pit size data obtained from corroded coupons. Results reveal a positively skewed truncated lognormal distribution of pit depths which implies a higher prevalence of smaller pit depths, corroborated both experimentally and numerically.